Housing market cooled in January, report says

Canada’s hot housing market cooled in January, the Canadian Real Estate Association announced Wednesday, with home sales down 4.5 per cent from the month before.

The decline was the first for monthly sales activity since August 2011, and the biggest monthly decline since July 2010, the agency said.

According to the figures, the national average home price went up by a mere 1.2 per cent year-over-year in January, one of the smallest increases since late 2010. The national average home price for the month was $348,178.

“The national housing market is stabilizing and remains well balanced,” CREA president Gary Morse said in a statement.

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Housing market expected to remain steady: CMHC

OTTAWA — Canada’s housing market will remain steady this year and through 2013, with home prices expected to rise moderately, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday

“With the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen in 2011,” said CMHC deputy chief economist Mathieu Laberge.

Housing starts will total 190,000 units in 2012 and 193,800 units next year, according to the government agency.

Sales will amount to about 457,300 units this year 468,200 units in 2013, it said.

CMHC sees the average home price reaching $368,900 in 2012 and $379,000 the next year.

“The moderate increases in the average . . . price are consistent with the balanced market conditions that occurred in 2011, and that are expected to continue in 2012 and 2013,” CMHC said.

© The Financial Post
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Mild winter sparks more cottage interest, realtors say

A mild winter and lack of snow in parts of Ontario seems to have had a positive effect on vacation property sales, real estate agents say.

With the exception of this weekend, there’s virtually no snow in the Greater Toronto Area and that appears to have people thinking about summer and a getaway north of the city.

Huntsville real estate agent Susan Brown said she’s sold four cottages in the last two months at a time when many in her industry are heading south to Florida to escape the cold and slow times.

“I’ve been busier now than I have been in 22 years in the winter,” she told CTV News Saturday. “Usually, it’s very quiet.”

Even in cottage country this year the snow is below normal, meaning easier access to listed properties.

Rural roads that are typically covered in snow are passable and that appears to be attracting buyers to market earlier than usual, Brown said.

“I was showing a young couple a few weeks ago, and normally we would have to have snowshoes on . . . we would have been up to our hips in snow without them, and we just walked in (this year),” she said.

The warm weather is also encouraging sellers to list their cottages earlier this year, Brown said.

 

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Re/Max says housing market beats expectations in 2011

MISSISSAUGA, Ont. — The Re/Max real-estate sales organization says Canada’s housing market has been ahead of expectations this year and growth will likely continue into 2012.

It says home prices are expected to be up in 23 of the 26 local markets that it tracks, with about 460,000 changing hands by the end of 2012.

Re/Max says it expects the upward trend will continue next year but at a more moderate pace.

It expects Calgary, Saskatoon and Halifax-Dartmouth will likely lead the country in unit sales in 2011, with the volume increasing by five per cent.

The Greater Toronto Area, St. John’s, N.L., Saint John, N.B., Moncton and Regina are expected also see more sales next year, about three per cent above 2011.

Consistent with other data, Re/Max says the Canadian housing market picked up steam as the year went on — helped by low interest rates and rising prices.

Many economists had expected the Bank of Canada would begin raising its key interest rate by the middle of 2012 but that didn’t happen.

The central bank has kept interest rates low to stimulate the economy by making it less costly for businesses and consumers to borrow for their purchases.

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U.S. new home sales rise most in five months

WASHINGTON — New U.S. single-family home sales rose in October and the supply of homes on the market fell to its lowest level since April of last year, showing some healing in the battered housing sector.

The Commerce Department on Monday said that sales edged up 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted 307,000-unit annual rate, which was the fastest pace in five months, yet still below analysts’ expectations. The supply of new homes in the market would last 6.3 months at the current pace of sales.

Still, the median sales price fell 0.5%, casting a pall on the market’s outlook as potential buyers can be spooked by falling prices.

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Canada’s slowing economy may need rate cuts: OECD

Canada’s economy is slowing because of weaker foreign demand and may need new stimulus from the central bank and government if things get worse, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

Gross domestic product will grow 1.9% next year, the Paris-based OECD predicted Monday, down from its May forecast for a 2.8% expansion. The outlook for this year was pared to 2.2% from 3% in May, and it estimated 2013 growth of 2.5%.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said last week he may offer additional stimulus if required, adding the risks to the global recovery from Europe’s debt crisis are increasing. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has kept his key lending rate at 1% since September 2010 and has said the economy won’t fully recover until well into 2013.

“Output is projected to expand at a slow pace as exports are restrained by sluggish external demand,” the OECD report said. “Domestic spending should sustain growth but at a moderate rate, as high debt and waning sentiment curb consumption growth.”

Consumers may be discouraged from spending by debts that are a record 150% of disposable income and by a weak job market marked by government cutbacks and slow private hiring, the OECD said. Unemployment will be little changed next year at 7.3% from this year’s 7.4% according to the report.

“Risks are skewed to the downside,” the OECD said, and if they materialize “the Bank of Canada should ease monetary policy via further interest rate cuts, which in a downside scenario would be consistent with the inflation target.”

The Bank of Canada has predicted inflation will slow to 1% in the second quarter of next year from 2.7% this quarter. The bank acts to keep inflation in the middle of a 1% to 3% band.

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Home values have doubled since 2000

A new report suggests that the average home value has doubled in most of Canada’s big cities since the millennium.

Re/Max says it examined the value of homes in 16 major markets across Canada, calculating the changes that occurred from 2000 to 2010.

The real estate organization found that an average home in these markets was worth $339,030 as of last year, more than double the average price of $163,951 in 2000.

Re/Max says that Canadians have spent an estimated $450 billion on renovations over the decade, while more than $340 billion in residential building permits were issued.

This heavy-duty investment has helped build value in individual properties while an increasing number of people looking for housing has helped spur demand.

“They key to Canada’s housing evolution has been an increase in population,” says Michael Polzler, the executive vice president of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada Inc.

With further sharp population growth expected in the years ahead, Polzler says that portends “continued investment and continued growth in Canadian housing values.”

The hundreds of billions poured into rejuvenating homes and properties across the country have also created new trends in urban neighbourhoods, Re/Max says in its report.

In cities where space is scarce, residents are increasingly seeing small properties snapped up and turned into new structures, whether personal residences, townhomes or high-rise apartment buildings.

Condominiums have also become more popular and more varied in terms of what they can offer. Re/Max says buyers can now choose from mixed-use residential, live-work studios, lofts, townhomes and condo bungalows in major markets.

 

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Canadian home sales doing better than expected

OTTAWA — The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in Ontario were stronger than anticipated during the third quarter — resulting in a slightly brighter outlook for CREA’s 2011 and 2012 national forecasts.

The industry association is now projecting sales this year will be up 1.4 per cent from 2010, half a percentage point better than the previous forecast.

CREA expects there will be slightly fewer units sold next year than in 2011, but the 0.5 per cent decline is an upward revision.

The association is now forecasting 453,300 home sales countrywide this year, up from 446,915 in 2010. The forecast for 2012 is 451,200 homes sold.

The revision comes at a time when central banks in Canada and the United States are keeping their key lending rates low to counter the economic drag caused by the European debt crisis.

The assurance of relatively low borrowing costs has probably given home buyers confidence while rising home values have kept new listings at a healthy level. Stable employment has provided some assurance to owners and buyers alike, although they have also been monitoring the darkening economic clouds.

“There was no shortage of headline news in October about global financial market volatility and economic uncertainty, but it doesn’t appear to have dampened homebuyers’ spirits,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s president.

“Interest rates are at low levels and are likely to stay that way for some time to come. Homebuyers clearly see the opportunities that the current interest rate environment presents.”

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Canadian banks top choice for U.S. money market funds

In the wake of a deteriorating European debt crisis, U.S. money market funds have made Canada their top investment destination.

Based on data from Fitch Ratings for the month of September, Canadian banks now represent 10.7% of American money market fund exposure. That is because exposure to Canadian banks increased a whopping 12% from August to September.

The increase comes at the expense of European banks, which have seen U.S. money market funds steadily pull out over the last few months. European bank exposure now represents 37.7% of total holdings of $654-billion, based on a sample of the 10 largest money market funds surveyed by Fitch.

That’s a decrease from the 42.1% of total assets exposed to European banks in August, and a further retreat from the 47.2% exposure in July.

 

“In percentage terms, the current exposure level is the lowest observed within Fitch’s historical time series, which dates back to second-half 2006,” Robert Grossman, group managing director for Fitch Ratings, said.

U.S. money market funds have been particularly sheepish about France in recent months. Exposure to French banks tumbled to 6.7% in September, down from 11.2% in August. While that was one of the steepest drops thus far, it represents a continuing trend. Exposure to French banks peaked in the second half of 2009, when French lenders represented 16.4% of U.S. money market assets.

So which banks do money market managers prefer? According to Fitch, the top Canadian bank was Bank of Nova Scotia, with 3.1% exposure. That still makes Scotiabank fifth overall, however, trailing Germany’s Deutsche Bank, which averaged 3.5% exposure. Tied with Deutsche for the top spot was the United Kingdom’s Barclays and Australia’s Westpac.

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U.S. regulator unveils help for underwater homeowners

WASHINGTON — A leading U.S. housing regulator on Monday announced changes to a government refinancing program that could help up to one million homeowners whose homes are worth less than their mortgage.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said it was easing the terms of the two-year-old Home Affordable Refinance Program, which helps borrowers who have been making mortgage payments on time but have not been able to refinance as home values have dropped.

To help underwater borrowers, or those whose loans are worth more than their homes, FHFA said it will scrap a cap that prohibits any homeowners whose mortgage exceeds 125% of the property’s value from participating in HARP, which is targeted at loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The plan, targeted at borrowers who hold loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is the latest government effort to deal with a problem at the center of the economy’s weak recovery — a crippled housing market.

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